Three Main Myths About Betting on Soccer

When predicting the result of a particular soccer match, even experienced bettors are prone to some common stereotypes, which are avoided by professional bettors and, of course, the experts of bookmakers. Today we will try to debunk the three most common myths about soccer and, accordingly, pari betting on this sport.

Bookmakers put quotes on any event, following two main sources: information about the likely outcome of the event (using statistics on teams and the current form of players, news about injuries of players, coaching decisions, etc.) and how much money bettors have bet on a particular outcome. If bettors, for the sake of common misconceptions, “forget” about the role of statistics and analytics, they thereby create opportunities for additional profits for “bookies”.

There are three major misconceptions, and we will tell you about each of them.

Misconception 1: The team will win because it needs to win

Most bettors reason roughly as follows: “Since team A needs a win in this match in order to get into the top division (options – not to be relegated to the bottom division, become champions, get into European competitions, etc.), and team B needs nothing, then, of course, team A has the win in the pocket. And they are deeply mistaken.

To begin with, the basis for this theory is the assumption that the team for which winning is more important, will put more effort into it. But if you look at this postulate from a different perspective, you can see that the players of Team B, who don’t really need anything, will play more relaxed and enjoy themselves, while their opponents, worried about the outcome of the match, will get nervous and make unforced errors (to resort here to the tennis terminology).

Looking at the statistics for the last ten seasons of the English Championship and League One (the second and third divisions in the Foggy Albion soccer system respectively), there is an interesting feature: those teams who are looking to move up to the top division tend to perform worse in May (the last month of the season) than in any other month during the championship.

Knowing this, bookmakers often deliberately underbid these teams at the end of the season, thus encouraging players to think that victory in this match is a foregone conclusion. Bettors fall into this trap and most often lose their hard-earned money.

Misconception 2: Fatigue after European Cups

“Team A had a tough away Champions League game this week, while team B was quietly preparing for Saturday/Sunday’s game at home. It’s unlikely that team A, tired from the extra games and flights, can win this weekend,” is the reasoning of most bettors, or so they say. However, there is no data to support this theory.

There are reputable studies of experts who establish the following fact: in the last seven seasons of the English Premier League teams who participated in the midweek European cup tournaments, then won the next championship match in 49% of cases, while their average was 48%. Clearly, the difference between the two figures is close to a statistical margin of error, but nevertheless the data is very telling.

It is worth bearing in mind that, firstly, the strongest teams of both the APL and other European leagues, which have the best bases, training fields, coaches and specialists to restore physical (and, if necessary, moral) strength, most often participate in European Cups. And, secondly, half of the matches of the Champions League and Europa League teams spend at home stadiums, and flights on average take about three hours (we can imagine what the players of the Dutch PSV, who had to fly to Novosibirsk a few years ago to play against local Siberia) were thinking.

Misconception 3: A new coach will “shake up” the team

Another misconception that bettors who place soccer bets have is that many of them believe that if a new coach comes to a team with poor results, it will immediately start to play differently and start winning (or at least not losing). Ostensibly, the players will try to show their indispensability on the field in front of the new coaching staff, and the team’s results will go up sharply.

But again, this is just a myth, unproven by anything. The same research on the recent APL seasons concludes that the change of coach in general has no effect on the improvement of the team’s game; on the contrary, the opposite can be observed more often. This is primarily due to the fact that the management of teams at the bottom of the table, trying to avoid relegation, change the coach a few rounds before the end of the championship, hoping for a miracle.

But in the majority of cases the old Russian saying “Never change a horse before the crossing” comes true, and the team dishonorably relegates to a lower division.

Pinnacle, confirming its loyalty program for successful players, constantly reveals betting secrets, both in this piece and in others. We are not afraid of winners – because they will attract a lot of new customers after them!

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